University Times

The situation in Egypt still is fluid following the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11. But according to a Pitt expert, one thing is certain: For a true democracy to emerge, the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood must be allowed to participate fully.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces seized power from Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt since Anwar Sadat’s assassination in 1981.

On Feb. 13 the military announced plans for a transition from Mubarak’s regime, including dissolving the Parliament, suspending the constitution, calling for a referendum on constitutional amendments and declaring that elections will be held within six months.

Tony Gaskew

“To me, the true litmus test is how the military treats the Muslim Brotherhood in this situation,” said Tony Gaskew, Pitt-Bradford assistant professor of criminal justice whose forthcoming book, “The Muslim Brotherhood: Reshaping U.S. Foreign Policy Post-9/11,” will focus on his fieldwork studying the Brotherhood’s political and social influence.

“If Egypt is to be truly democratic, it must develop its own version of democracy based on the will of the people, but that means that all the factions must have free access to the power and that includes how the military is going to portray the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been outlawed for more than 50 years,” Gaskew said.

Gaskew estimated that roughly 15-20 percent of Egypt’s 80 million-plus people are members of the dissident Brotherhood, with many more who are supporters.

“Since the Brotherhood began in 1928, it has become an enormous social movement with millions of adherents that include professional people, professors, lawyers, doctors — and this is important — many, many women,” he said. “To tell the Brotherhood it can’t participate in this pivotal moment in Egyptian politics would be disregarding millions of ordinary Egyptians’ voices. The Brotherhood is an integral part of Egyptian society and must be part of its future. How much a part is negotiable.”

Gaskew explained that the Brotherhood has been embedded in the Egyptian social order for decades, even providing social services that the Egyptian government is unable or unwilling to supply. The Brotherhood largely is peaceful, democratic and transparent, he said.

“The military will never accept a Muslim Brotherhood member as president — they’ve spent the past 70 years investigating and hunting them,” Gaskew said. “But one doesn’t need to be, as long as the Brotherhood has a significant voice in a new cabinet.” That is not the same as a government based on Brotherhood ideology, he stressed.

“The Brotherhood understands that this will take time and they’re willing to be patient.”

Will the movement toward democracy in Egypt spread throughout the Middle East?

“Absolutely, it will. Egypt sits where it’s always been: The most influential country in the Middle East. There will be a political domino effect. If Egypt can overthrow its government of 30 years, it can happen anywhere,” Gaskew maintained. “That’s why we’re at an extremely crucial point in time, where fringe groups like the Islamic Jihad are watching carefully what the military does. If the military cracks down, or excludes the Muslim Brotherhood from power, fringe groups can say, ‘See, it’s just Mubarak all over again.’”

If a democracy does emerge in Egypt, Gaskew said, it will differ from the United States’ version.

“You have to remember that 90 percent of the country are Muslims. If you ever visited there you know that there is a national call to prayer over a loudspeaker five times a day. So there is already this blend of culture, politics and religion. That blend will become even more significant in the post-Mubarak era.”

Deposing Mubarak has been relatively bloodless so far, getting the revolution off to a good start, Gaskew said.

“The fear, really, is not an Egyptian fear, but a more regional one, whether the Muslim Brotherhood will be treated fairly and equally and if that transition will be smooth. Egypt knows it’s not an island,” and the entire Middle East is watching what happens with great interest, he said.

U.S. policy toward Egypt, Gaskew said, should be more or less hands-off. “The U.S. should send a clear message that we support whatever style of democracy that the Egyptian people want, because the Egyptian people have to determine that. That’s why, again, participation of the Muslim Brotherhood is the key.”

Such a policy also sends a message to U.S. allies, who likely will join in supporting a new Egyptian government if the United States does, he added.

—Peter Hart

About 50 local students and other demonstrators held a spontaneous celebration near Schenley Plaza Feb. 11, as the news spread of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster from power. Included among the revelers was Pitt senior Youssef Abdelwahab, third from left, whose parents are from Egypt and who has family members still living there. Abdelwahab, who watched intently as the situation in Egypt unfolded in recent weeks, told the University Times, “I’m very happy. It was amazing to watch that in just two months, even less, how Mubarak’s control had deteriorated, due to the actions of the people.” Abdelwahab said he had to rearrange his study schedule to allow him to watch late-night news on CNN and Al Jazeera. “It made me very proud to see the protesters,” he said. “I would like to see the military take control only to keep order until Egyptian citizens get back to their normal routines, and then allow the democratic process to unfold. Egyptians value freedom and they vote, but they do it cynically, because they know the results are corrupt.”Now he’s hopeful that that will change.