By CHUCK STARESINIC

A new report from the University forecasts a sizeable decrease in population for the Pittsburgh region by 2050. 

Christopher Briem, a regional economist and data scientist with Pitt’s University Center for Social and Urban Research (UCSUR), released the report on Oct. 29. His work in UCSUR’s Urban & Regional Analysis program focuses on regional competitiveness, economic and demographic forecasting, and industry analysis in the Pittsburgh region. 

The report’s baseline projection portends a 10% decline in population in the eight-county region of southwestern Pennsylvania. Alternate projections intended to bracket the baseline projection with best- and worst-case scenarios forecast declines of 3.5% to 13%, respectively.

The regional population projection for the next 25 years is based on the Pittsburgh REMI Model, an econometric forecasting tool produced by Regional Economic Models, Inc. Along with the additional two projections, the three forecasts are intended to bracket the realistic range of demographic changes expected in the Pittsburgh region between now and 2050.

Region is among the nation’s oldest

In a conference call with members of the media and the University community, Briem described natural population change—the difference between births and deaths—as the primary driver of the decline, driven by southwestern Pennsylvania’s aging population and the historic economic shifts in the region’s past, such as the decline of the steel industry in the second half of the 20th century. 

“We are one of the older metropolitan areas in the country. This is a reflection of past economic change, like the loss of population in the 1980s. If you were a 20-something worker in Pittsburgh in 1982, you saw your economic opportunities elsewhere. Those workers took with them their families and their future families. That has extended that impact of what was a very brief, but severe, economic trauma into today.”

Can a region thrive as population declines?

On the conference call, Briem said that he anticipated a common question from the public and the media in response to this report would be, “Are we locked into decline?” 

“You're not going to change the natural population change piece. If you want to be on either the higher [population] end of these scenarios, or even get to net population gains, it’s certainly possible. But what it depends on is the region being able to attract more people than has been the experience here, at least within the last 25 years.”

Briem defined economic migration as the moves that people make for employment or in search of better opportunities and quality of life.   

“We are a region that has typically lost people to what I explained was economic migration. So it would require us gaining more people due to that economic migration flow than we've actually seen in the last 20 years. Certainly possible, but it is a bit of a challenge.”

“People have asked me, is it positive or negative,” Briem continued. “It is a bit dour, I will admit, but this is a reality, based on a bunch of demographic trends that are already happening.”

He was also quick to point out that the Pittsburgh region is not alone in facing the challenge of adapting to declining population, while still finding ways to thrive.

“I don't think Boston has had a lot of growth,” Briem pointed out. “The Switzerlands and the Japans of the world are places actually suffering from population declines. I think most folks think they rank pretty high on quality of life. So I think there are plenty of examples. I think the story here is … over next 10 or 20 years, many regions will be faced with moderate growth, if not outright decline. I'd like to think that we're not all, you know, suffering from that. I think they all will be focused on being places where people want to live and learn.”

Chuck Staresinic is interim editor of the University Times. Reach him at chuck.s@pitt.edu.

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